The National Hurricane Center has designated an area of low pressure in the Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC18), expected to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane by mid-week. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a tropical storm warning is issued for Jamaica. Additional systems are being monitored, highlighting the variability of late-season tropical activity in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has classified an extensive area of low pressure in the western Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC18) as of Sunday afternoon. This system is expected to evolve into a tropical storm by late Sunday or early Monday, with further strengthening anticipated during the initial part of the week. By Wednesday, it may escalate to hurricane strength as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico. In response to this developing situation, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, indicating that hurricane conditions could manifest within approximately 48 hours. Furthermore, a tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, predicting tropical storm conditions may occur within the next 24 to 36 hours. The NHC forecasts that PTC18 will drift northwestward over the coming days, potentially delivering substantial rainfall to surrounding areas in the western Caribbean. There is a possibility this system could enter the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week, though factors such as wind shear, dry air, and cooling waters in the Gulf may impede its organization and intensity as it progresses northward. Consequently, local residents are advised to remain vigilant and monitor updates as the forecast evolves. Additionally, the NHC is observing another trough of low pressure situated near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, which is projected to bring localized flooding rainfall in those regions over the upcoming days, albeit with a low probability of tropical development before merging with the Caribbean disturbance. Furthermore, Subtropical Storm Patty formed in the Northern Atlantic and is anticipated to generate gusty conditions for the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula through the early part of the week. Historically, the western Caribbean is a noteworthy locale for late-season storm formation. As hurricane season draws to a close, the likelihood of tropical storm formation decreases, with the last month of the season averaging the generation of a storm every one to two years. Recent years have shown variability in November storm activity, as seen in 2022 when several hurricanes formed, including Nicole, which made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, marking a significant event for November storms in the continental United States.
The article examines the potential development of tropical systems as the Atlantic hurricane season nears its conclusion. It provides updates on various systems monitored by the National Hurricane Center, including Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the Caribbean, and addresses historical patterns and recent trends in storm formations during November. This period often registers tropical activity, specifically in areas such as the western Caribbean, known for late-season storm occurrences. Understanding these trends is essential for preparedness and response measures as communities head into the latter part of the hurricane season.
In summary, the National Hurricane Center’s identification of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen signals a period of potential tropical activity in the western Caribbean, leading to likely storm development in the coming days. With warnings in place for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, it remains critical for residents in affected regions to stay updated on changing weather conditions. Historical insights illustrate the variability of November storm activity, emphasizing the importance of vigilance even as the hurricane season wanes.
Original Source: weather.com
