A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to develop into a tropical depression within days, with the National Hurricane Center highlighting potential impacts, including flooding across Caribbean islands. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Patty has formed in the North Atlantic, though it is expected to weaken soon. Overall, the risk of a significant storm affecting the U.S. remains low.
A weather disturbance is currently evolving in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, with expectations that it may soon develop into a tropical depression. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as of Saturday morning, the system constituted disorganized showers and thunderstorms but is projected to strengthen progressively over the weekend. This development could happen as the system transitions over the central and western portions of the Caribbean. Should this disturbance achieve tropical storm intensity, it would be named Rafael, as the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season proceeds. Forecasters indicate a consensus among computer models that the system will reach tropical storm strength as it approaches the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Bryan Norcross, a Hurricane Specialist at FOX Weather, remarked, “There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday.” Moreover, the anticipated storm may enhance flood risks across Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico starting Monday, with possible moisture reaching South Florida midweek. However, the forecast remains uncertain as the system enters the Gulf due to weaker steering currents. Norcross elaborated, “If the system stays relatively weak, it looks more likely to drift to the west, perhaps toward the Mexican coast. If it’s on the stronger side, however, it could continue north toward some part of the U.S. Gulf Coast.” Atmospheric conditions may not be favorable for significant strengthening, as dry air and adverse upper-level winds could hinder development. Norcross stated, “even if possible-Rafael is able to strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant storm at the coast looks unlikely, based on what we know now.” Additionally, the NHC is observing an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, which carries a low chance of development over the upcoming week. Some heavy tropical precipitation is expected to affect the northeastern Caribbean islands as the system moves westward, but this system will likely be absorbed by the developing disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean. In the North Atlantic, the NHC confirmed the occurrence of Subtropical Storm Patty, which formed Saturday morning and had sustained winds of 50 mph, positioned approximately 400 miles west/northwest of the Azores. This system, previously referred to as Invest 96L, is anticipated to maintain its strength on Saturday before gradually weakening and potentially becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Ultimately, the next week will require continued monitoring of the tropics, with current indications suggesting a low probability for a significant storm’s impact on the U.S. coast.
The article outlines the current status of a weather disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, which is showing signs of potential development into a tropical depression. It highlights the importance of monitoring such weather patterns as the Atlantic hurricane season approaches its end on November 30. The potential impact of the developing system on the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico is discussed in depth, taking into account prevailing atmospheric conditions and historical data from hurricane patterns. The article also notes the existence of Subtropical Storm Patty in the North Atlantic, adding further context to the ongoing developments within this critical weather period.
In conclusion, the Caribbean disturbance is anticipated to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days, with implications for flooding across the Caribbean islands and potential impacts in the Gulf of Mexico. The situation remains dynamic, with forecasts subject to change as new data emerges. Continuing vigilance is advisable as meteorologists assess the likelihood and trajectory of the developing system. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Patty is noteworthy but expected to weaken soon. Overall, the probability of a significant storm affecting the U.S. appears limited based on current projections.
Original Source: www.fox13news.com
