U.S. officials report that the Somalia-Ethiopia conflict is allowing Al-Shabaab to regain power and territory as Somalia diverts attention from combating the militant group. Ethiopia’s plan for a military base in Somaliland has strained relations, prompting Somalia to forge military links with Egypt. This shift in focus towards diplomatic conflicts has hindered Somalia’s previous gains against Al-Shabaab, leading to increased militant activity amidst regional tensions.
Senior United States officials have expressed growing concern regarding the ongoing conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly in light of Ethiopia’s recent positioning toward Somaliland, a self-governing region of Somalia. The essence of the dispute centers around Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland, granting it access to 20 kilometers of the Red Sea for a proposed military base and port. This initiative has been perceived by the Somali government as a direct threat to its territorial integrity and sovereignty, eliciting substantial outrage and resulting in Somalia’s military pact with Egypt to bolster its stance. Increased tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia have diverted the Somali government’s focus from its longstanding battle against Al-Shabaab militants. Senior U.S. officials warn that this distraction has facilitated Al-Shabaab’s resurgence in territory and influence, reversing progress previously made in combatting the group. In the recent past, Somalia had successfully reclaimed significant areas from Al-Shabaab and disrupted its funding sources. Recent developments indicate an alarming shift, as military operations against the group have lessened, enabling Al-Shabaab to conduct attacks on military installations throughout Somalia, including operations targeting Ethiopian forces. The United States, with a strategic presence of approximately 450 commandos in Somalia engaged in training local forces against Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, is wary that Egypt’s deepening involvement, amidst its own grievances with Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam, could complicate the counter-terrorism landscape further. Somalia is poised to have Egypt lead a new mission, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM), set to replace the existing African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). However, there remains skepticism among regional allies regarding Egypt’s intentions, particularly given Uganda’s hesitance in engaging with a nation that has not actively participated in stabilization efforts recently. As President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud articulates the detrimental effects of Ethiopia’s territorial ambitions on Somalia’s security dynamics, he acknowledges the resurgent threat posed by Al-Shabaab as a byproduct of this geopolitical strife. The ongoing shift in focus, along with the halting of planned military operations against the militants, underscores a significant concern for both Somali national security and regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
The conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia has intensified over Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland for Red Sea access, causing Somalia to reassess its military strategies. Al-Shabaab, a militant group that has been a persistent threat in the region, previously faced substantial setbacks due to the offensive operations led by Somali forces with the support of international allies. However, as the conflict with Ethiopia escalates, Somali government efforts against Al-Shabaab have diminished, leading to fears regarding the group’s resurgence.
In summary, the ongoing dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia reflects a complex interplay of national interests, with the potential to exacerbate regional instability. While Somalia grapples with its internal security challenges intensified by external conflicts, Al-Shabaab capitalizes on these diversions, threatening gains previously made against it. Such developments necessitate a careful reassessment of both domestic strategies in Somalia and the roles of international actors in fostering peace and security in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.garoweonline.com
