A study published in *Nature* warns that exceeding the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement could lead to irreversible climate damages, including significant sea level rise. The research highlights the necessity of immediate action to reduce emissions and achieve net-negative CO2 emissions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
A recent study published in Nature underscores the risks associated with temporarily exceeding the Paris Agreement’s threshold of a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures. The research, stemming from a significant three-and-a-half-year project supported by the European HORIZON2020 innovation fund, delves into potential ‘overshoot’ scenarios, where global temperatures spike above 1.5°C before subsequently declining through the achievement of net-negative carbon dioxide emissions. Leading the study, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner of the Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has stated, “This paper does away with any notion that overshoot would deliver a similar climate outcome to a future in which we had done more, earlier, to ensure to limit peak warming to 1.5°C.” He emphasized that immediate and enhanced actions to curtail emissions are essential in this critical decade to mitigate harmful climate impacts. The findings indicate that allowing temperatures to exceed 1.5°C creates severe and in some cases irreversible damages, including the ongoing rise of sea levels. Anticipating these effects, the study reveals that achieving long-term temperature declines could significantly diminish sea-level rise by approximately 40 cm by the year 2300. Joeri Rogelj, a co-author of the study and professor at Imperial College London, remarked, “Until we get to net zero, warming will continue. The earlier we can get to net zero, the lower peak warming will be, and the smaller the risks of irreversible impacts.” This sentiment highlights the necessity for nations to commit to ambitious reductions in emissions as part of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), particularly in advance of the upcoming climate summit in Brazil. Furthermore, the research points to the requirement for robust carbon dioxide removal strategies to mitigate potential overshoot scenarios. Gaurav Ganti, another study co-author, asserted, “There is no way to rule out the need for large amounts of net negative emissions capabilities, so we really need to minimize our residual emissions.” It is imperative that emissions reductions are prioritized to prevent reliance on carbon removal technologies to offset avoidable emissions.
The issue of climate change has become increasingly urgent as scientists study the effects of rising global temperatures. The Paris Agreement sets a target to limit global warming to well below 2°C, with aspirations to maintain it at 1.5°C. However, there are concerns about temporary overshoots that could have lasting negative effects on the environment. The latest research sheds light on these scenarios and emphasizes the importance of decisive action to prevent catastrophic outcomes. The study in question takes a comprehensive approach to analyzing the potential impacts of overshooting the 1.5°C limit, focusing on both the short-term and long-term consequences of such scenarios, particularly in regards to irreversible climate damages like sea level rise.
In summary, the study published in *Nature* conveys a stark warning against the dangers of overshooting the 1.5°C temperature limit set by the Paris Agreement. Despite the possibility of reversing some temperature increases through net-negative emissions, the research indicates that substantial damage, particularly in relation to sea level rise, is likely to be permanent. Immediate action to reduce emissions is imperative, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and ambitious climate pledges from nations worldwide. The findings highlight the urgency of transitioning to net-zero emissions and the need for effective carbon dioxide removal technologies.
Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com
