Turkey is enhancing its bilateral engagement with Somalia through energy initiatives, but increasing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia pose threats to its investments and diplomatic efforts. The complex geopolitical environment, exacerbated by Egypt’s military involvement with Somalia, underscores the need for effective mediation to stabilize relations in the region.
Turkey has recently intensified its diplomatic and economic engagement with Somalia through the deployment of the energy research vessel Oruc Reis, accompanied by Turkish naval vessels. This operation is part of a broader energy agreement aimed at enhancing Turkey’s influence and investments in Somalia. Geopolitical consultant Norman Rickelfs highlights Turkey’s robust presence in Mogadishu, noting the nation’s substantial embassy, military base, and control over the port. However, the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, poses significant risks to Turkey’s investment strategy. The backdrop to this development is Ethiopia’s recent memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a disputed region that Somalia claims as part of its territory. This agreement, condemned by the Somali government, provides Ethiopia with maritime access while recognizing Somaliland’s autonomy, thereby exacerbating Somali territorial concerns. Turkey, which maintains cordial relations with both Somalia and Ethiopia, attempted to mediate escalating tensions in September but faced setbacks following the postponement of negotiations. Additionally, Egypt’s increasing military ties with Somalia and recent arms shipments further complicate the already fragile situation. Professor Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu of the Social Sciences University of Ankara warns that rising tensions involving Egypt may hinder reconciliation efforts between Ethiopia and Somalia, as shifting alliances in the region worsen the prospects for cooperation. The ongoing disputes are further complicated by Egypt’s objections to Ethiopia’s dam project on the Nile River, which has stoked longstanding tensions between the two nations over water security. Kaan Devecioglu from the Ankara-based think tank Orsam emphasizes the sensitive nature of Egypt’s military presence in Somalia, linking it to broader regional rivalries. While Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi’s recent discussions in Ankara indicate a potential thawing of relations, analysts express concern over the diminishing timeframe for effective mediation from Ankara, particularly as conflicts in the Horn of Africa escalate.
Turkey has pursued an aggressive foreign policy focused on bolstering its presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia. This initiative includes investments in military and civilian infrastructure, aiming to transform Somalia into a strategic ally and a hub for Turkish interests in the region. Turkey’s relationship with Ethiopia has been marked by diplomatic balancing, navigating complex historical and contemporary grievances that inform their interactions. As regional stability remains precarious, Turkish mediation is critical yet challenged by rival alliances, specifically involving Egypt’s military collaboration with Somalia and Ethiopia’s strategic maneuvers.
In conclusion, Turkey’s deepening ties with Somalia through energy exploration are commendable; however, regional geopolitical dynamics, particularly rising tensions with Ethiopia and Egypt’s military involvement, jeopardize these investments. Ankara’s mediation efforts are crucial but face significant hurdles as the parties involved seek leverage over one another. The situation calls for coordinated international support to aid Turkey’s role in de-escalating conflicts and fostering stability in the Horn of Africa, an area critical to global trade routes.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
