In 2024, China’s exports surged 10.7 percent, hitting record highs, as the country braces for impending tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump. Despite the threat of these tariffs, imports also rose by 1 percent, suggesting a resilient trade performance. Economists express concerns regarding the potential impact of significant tariffs on both U.S. consumers and China’s GDP growth.
China’s exports reached unprecedented levels in 2024, reflecting a significant 10.7 percent increase compared to the previous year, according to customs data released on Monday. This surge in exports occurred despite looming tariffs from United States President-elect Donald Trump, whose economic strategy includes imposing substantial tariffs on Chinese goods. Importantly, imports also saw a surprising rise, increasing by 1 percent, marking the strongest growth since July 2024. Economists are concerned that Trump’s potential tariffs could adversely affect U.S. consumers and reduce the profit margins of Chinese exporters, with estimates suggesting a 60 percent tariff could slash China’s GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points within the next year. Despite these concerns, Chinese firms are reportedly accelerating shipments to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs. Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, noted that outbound shipments are likely to remain robust in the short term, supported by a weak real effective exchange rate. In response to slow economic growth aggravated by a range of factors including a real estate crisis and waning consumer confidence, Beijing has implemented aggressive economic measures such as policy rate reductions and eased property purchasing restrictions. The Chinese government is expected to announce its GDP figures for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024 this Friday, following a recent upward revision by the World Bank, which raised its growth estimate for China from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent for 2024.
In the context of global trade, China has emerged as a central player with its economy being the second-largest worldwide. The recent spike in exports coincides with the political and economic uncertainty brought about by the incoming U.S. administration and its proposed tariffs, which are aimed at curbing China’s trade practices. The potential imposition of these tariffs has raised concerns regarding the repercussions on both Chinese and U.S. economies, particularly as the U.S. consumer could face increased prices and disrupted supply chains. China’s recent economic strategies also seek to counterbalance the slow growth resulting from domestic and international pressures.
In summary, China experienced a remarkable increase in exports in 2024, despite the threat of substantial tariffs from the incoming Trump administration. While the rise in exports and imports reflects a resilient economy, economists caution about the potential negative impacts of tariffs on both international trade and domestic growth. Policymakers in Beijing are proactively attempting to bolster economic performance through various measures as they prepare to release key GDP data. The challenges faced by China’s economy suggest that ongoing adjustments will be necessary to sustain growth amidst external pressures.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
