Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte and Mozambique in December 2023, with severe winds and significant destruction. Its intensity correlates with climate change-induced ocean warming, exacerbated by socio-economic conflicts and undocumented migration. Reports indicate extensive damage and high displacement, particularly in impoverished regions. Ongoing research highlights the increasing frequency and ferocity of tropical cyclones, necessitating enhanced resilience strategies.
Tropical Cyclone Chido, classified as an intense tropical cyclone akin to a category 4 hurricane, struck Mayotte and Mozambique in December 2023 with wind gusts reaching 155 mph. It emerged early in the cyclone season and closely followed the expected patterns for the Indian Ocean. However, the increase in ferocity and frequency of such storms correlates with rising ocean temperatures influenced by climate change. As reports unfold, approximately 70% of Mayotte’s population has been impacted, with over 50,000 residential structures in Mozambique suffering significant damage.
The combination of ongoing conflict in Mozambique and high numbers of undocumented migrants in Mayotte intensified the storm’s human toll and infrastructural devastation. Many migrants from regions afflicted by violence now constitute a substantial portion of Mayotte’s residents. The precarious living conditions contributed to a higher mortality rate during the cyclone, as undocumented individuals were reluctant to evacuate due to fears of deportation. Many have been left without safe shelter in regions notorious for inadequate infrastructure, leading to prolonged recovery periods for essential services such as electricity and clean water.
In Mozambique, the dual threats of cyclones and terrorism further complicate recovery efforts. Areas like Cabo Delgado and Nampula, heavily impacted by Chido, are also among the country’s poorest regions, exacerbated by deteriorating living conditions and limited access to education and employment. The aftermath of Chido is predicted to elevate the number of internally displaced persons, already numbering over half a million as of June 2024, following numerous previous evacuations due to ongoing violence.
The early arrival of Cyclone Chido in the season strained resources and prevented adequate preparation. Political instability following elections curtailed the support needed for a timely response. The warming waters of the Indian Ocean not only fueled Chido’s intensity but also expanded the cyclone risk zones, potentially affecting southern regions such as Maputo in the future. Studies indicate that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of such severe storms.
Research indicates that ocean temperatures along Chido’s track were 1.1°C higher than would have been the case without climate change, making such conditions over 50 times more probable due to warming. Further studies suggest Chido’s wind speeds were augmented by 5% because of climate change, transitioning it from a category 3 to a category 4 cyclone. This elevated wind intensity, coupled with trends of increased rainfall and slower moving storms, leads to greater flood risks during such events.
The phenomenon of tropical cyclones is becoming increasingly severe due to climate change, particularly in the Indian Ocean region. Recent cyclones have shown a pattern of intensifying winds and unprecedented rainfall, which have devastating effects on vulnerable populations. This is compounded by socio-economic issues, including conflict, migration, and inadequate infrastructure, making resilience building imperative in addressing future climate-related disasters.
In conclusion, Cyclone Chido exemplifies the complex interplay between climate change, migration, and conflict, which amplifies the risks posed by severe weather events. The rising intensity of storms directly links to warming ocean temperatures, making such catastrophic events more frequent and devastating. A concerted effort is required to address the social dynamics at play, particularly for displaced communities, to enhance resilience against the growing threat of tropical cyclones.
Original Source: theconversation.com
