Ethiopia and Somalia assert that they have resolved a conflict that had been escalating over recent months. Tensions heightened when Somalia threatened to oust Ethiopian troops, prompting military alliances with Ethiopia’s rivals and fears of regional instability. Despite claims of resolution, the underlying issues remain, suggesting ongoing risks.
Ethiopia and Somalia recently announced that they have resolved a longstanding and potentially dangerous feud. This conflict escalated over recent months, particularly as Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops, which have been instrumental in combating al-Shabab, a jihadist organization. As relations soured, Somalia established military alliances with Ethiopia’s adversaries, Egypt and Eritrea, while Ethiopian military officials contemplated supporting factions opposed to the Somali government, heightening fears of escalating tensions that could lead to regional instability.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia have historical roots, exacerbated by both nations’ complex political landscapes and their interactions with militant groups like al-Shabab. In June, Somalia’s ultimatum to expel Ethiopian troops indicated a deteriorating relationship that hinted at the possibility of conflict. The formation of alliances against Ethiopia highlighted particularly volatile regional dynamics, creating concerns among observers about the risk of proxy wars and a security vacuum in Somalia that could potentially benefit extremist groups.
While Ethiopia and Somalia claim to have resolved their conflict, the background reveals persistent tensions fueled by military alliances and threats. The situation remains precarious, as mistrust and historical enmities could easily resurface to destabilize the region. A cautious approach from international observers is warranted as the implications of this dispute extend beyond the immediate political landscape, potentially affecting regional security and counterterrorism efforts against groups like al-Shabab.
Original Source: www.economist.com
