The article discusses the aftermath of Assad’s regime collapse in Syria, the renewed activism of Lebanon’s Sunni community demanding amnesty for Islamist prisoners, and the ensuing political turbulence. Tensions between Lebanese Armed Forces and Hizbullah highlight ongoing struggles for power, while the possibility of a new Sunni regime in Syria raises concerns about regional stability and Lebanon’s future.
The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria evoked widespread celebrations throughout Lebanon, particularly in Sunni-dominant regions such as Tripoli, Sidon, and parts of Beirut. However, these initial festivities soon transformed into demands by Sunni-led Islamist factions, particularly Jamaah Islamiya, for the release of Islamist prisoners held in Lebanese jails. Sheikh Ahmad Shemali spearheaded protests, emphasizing that the movement for amnesty was only beginning.
The Sunni community in Lebanon is experiencing a resurgence, inspired by the rise of the jihadist group Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria. Islamist leaders are eager to reclaim Sunni influence over the weakened Shiite organization Hizbullah, which has faced substantial setbacks following the conflict with Israel and the regime’s decline in Syria. In a troubling political landscape, the prospect of amnesty for Islamists is complicated by the current speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, who is unlikely to support such measures given his affiliation with Hizbullah.
Lebanon’s political equilibrium remains precarious, as the Shiite community grapples with Hizbullah’s faltering strength. Recent tensions between General Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Hizbullah’s Wafiq Safa have highlighted the ongoing struggles for power and the necessity to enforce ceasefire agreements in southern Lebanon. The upcoming presidential elections may further exacerbate these divisions, particularly if an anti-Hizbullah candidate is elected.
Amidst this turbulence, the Sunni community’s awakening coincides with a changing regime in Syria, which has sparked concerns regarding potential instability in Lebanon. Iranian-backed groups, including the dangers posed by past militant activities such as ISIS’s incursions, remind Lebanese politicians of the fragility of their security. While Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Ahmad al Sharaa, has assured that they will refrain from interfering in Lebanese politics, the implications of ongoing events in Syria undoubtedly pose risks for Lebanon’s stability.
As the Syrian regime works to stabilize power and unify factions, Lebanon’s political situation will continue to evolve under these external influences. Although immediate threats may be limited, the potential for unrest within Sunni areas serves as a significant warning for Lebanon.
The article addresses the broader implications of Syria’s political changes on Lebanon’s complex socio-political landscape, particularly focusing on the Sunni and Shiite dynamics. With the fall of Assad’s regime, previously suppressed Islamist factions in Lebanon, particularly within the Sunni community, are seeking greater political influence and amnesty for imprisoned affiliates. The evolving relationship between Lebanon’s communities and the nascent Sunni regime in Syria raises concerns over regional stability. Historical contexts, such as past conflicts and the Sunni-Shiite divide, underscore the gravity of the situation as Lebanon anticipates upcoming presidential elections and the future of Hizbullah in a weakened political position.
In conclusion, the political landscape in Lebanon is experiencing significant upheaval following Syria’s regime change. The resurgence of the Sunni community and their quest for amnesty for imprisoned Islamists highlights the potential for renewed sectarian tensions in Lebanon. With Hizbullah’s diminished influence and the regional ramifications of Syrian developments, the Lebanese political scene is at a crossroads, facing both internal and external pressures that pose challenges to national stability. The upcoming presidential elections will be critical in determining the future direction of the country amid these evolving dynamics.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
