Iran acknowledges serious setbacks in its support for the Assad regime in Syria, where increasing opposition pressures and weakened proxies, particularly Hezbollah, challenge its strategic position. Major Iranian military leaders are vocalizing concerns of coordinated attacks aimed at destabilizing their influence, requiring renewed military and diplomatic efforts to bolster support for the beleaguered Syrian government amidst rising threats from groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Iran is currently grappling with significant challenges regarding its support for the Syrian regime, facing notable setbacks amidst growing tensions in the region. The Iranian regime acknowledges that deteriorating conditions faced by the Syrian government, particularly due to organized attacks from opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), pose serious implications for its strategic “axis of resistance.” This axis, comprising influential militias like Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Iraqi factions, has been perceived as instrumental in orchestrating regional conflicts, including recent hostilities against Israel following the October 7 Hamas attack. However, Iran’s reliance on these proxies has diminished as they encounter their own challenges, with Hezbollah suffering heavy losses in its engagements with Israeli forces, thus impacting its operational capacity in Syria.
The situation escalated further on December 3, when Iranian state media reported warnings from major Iranian military officials regarding increased terrorist activities in Syria, which they attributed to a purported American-Israeli conspiracy aimed at destabilizing the Syrian government. Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, has reached out to both Iraqi and Syrian military leaders, underscoring Iran’s urgent efforts to reinforce support for the besieged Assad regime amid HTS’s recent territorial gains in Aleppo and looming threats to Hama.
Meanwhile, the involvement of the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in clashes with Syrian regime forces raises further prospects of instability, particularly in the strategic Euphrates River valley. As Iran seeks to mitigate its allies’ weaknesses and restore its influence in Syria, it is also contemplating the reintegration of forces like Kataib Hezbollah to counter the opposition’s advances. Reports indicate a rising concern within the Iranian leadership that HTS may gain additional military backing, which they perceive as a direct threat to the regime’s fragility.
To address these myriad challenges, Iran’s military leadership is reportedly exploring various options, including enhanced collaboration with Russia and potential military deployments in support of the Syrian government, should such requests arise from President Bashar al-Assad. Notably, Javad Ghaffari, an influential figure within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has re-entered the fray to assess strategies aimed at bolstering regime defenses. However, the operational dynamics reveal a stark reality, as neither Iran nor Russia appear inclined to commit conventional ground forces, leaving the onus of fighting largely on weakened local proxies. In light of the prevailing conditions, Iran’s future strategies may hinge on developing diplomatic channels that could stabilize its positions in critical regions, such as negotiating with Turkey to thwart HTS offensives.
The context of this analysis involves Iran’s strategic involvement in Syria, particularly its support for the Assad regime amid ongoing conflict since the Syrian Civil War erupted in 2011. Historically, Iran’s proxies have played a vital role in assisting the Syrian government against various opposition factions. Recently, however, significant geopolitical developments have led to a reevaluation of Iran’s capabilities and alliances in the region, particularly due to military losses suffered by Hezbollah and internal pressures within the Syrian regime itself. These dynamics have created a precarious environment for Iranian interests and their broader objectives in maintaining a network of influence in the region.
In conclusion, Iran’s involvement in Syria is currently characterized by significant setbacks and challenges that compromise its influence as it struggles to maintain support for the Assad regime. With weakened proxies and increased opposition offensives, the Iranian leadership is facing mounting pressure to devise effective countermeasures. The unfolding situation highlights the intricate balance of power within the region and indicates that immediate diplomatic or military solutions will be necessary to address the leaks in Iran’s axis of resistance.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
