Aleppo has fallen to Syrian rebels in a surprise offensive, revealing shifts in power dynamics related to the wars in Ukraine and Lebanon. Assad’s forces, weaken by reduced Russian support and Israeli strikes against Iranian forces, have struggled to respond effectively. The rapid success of the rebels highlights the unresolved conflicts and the potential for a resurgence of hostilities in the region.
The recent offensive by Syrian rebels in the northwest region has led to the unexpected fall of Aleppo, a city that previously witnessed intense conflict during the Syrian civil war. This offensive has not only reignited active hostilities but also highlighted a significant shift in the power dynamics attributed to regional conflicts, particularly the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Lebanon.
Following years of control by the Syrian government, bolstered by Russian military support, Aleppo had seemed secure. However, the Idlib region remained under the influence of the Sunni jihadist group Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham, which has garnered support amid the changing geopolitical landscape.
The sudden vulnerability of Assad’s forces can be attributed to the reduced effectiveness of Russian support due to its preoccupation with Ukraine. Reports indicate that important military assets, including missile systems, have been reassigned, weakening Moscow’s position in Syria. Additionally, Russian airstrikes appear to have had minimal impact on the rebel advance, with tragic loss of civilian lives indicating a struggle for effective military strategy.
Concurrently, Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon have further compounded the Syrian regime’s precarious situation. With less support from Iran, the capacity of the Assad regime to sustain its military operations has been greatly diminished.
Experts observe that while the current climate in Syria has reignited old rivalries, the effectiveness of the HTS move was unexpectedly swift, granting it significant territorial gains. As the cycle of conflict continues unabated, the specter of further instability in the region looms large.
The context of the current crisis in Aleppo is rooted in a history of fierce fighting that characterized the Syrian civil war. Following the extensive military interventions that occurred between 2012 and 2016, the Assad regime appeared to have gained the upper hand with substantial support from Russia. However, recent developments, spurred by the shifting attention of Russian military forces to the Ukraine conflict, have unveiled vulnerabilities previously masked by the regime’s former successes. The HTS, having remained active in Idlib, represents a growing threat to the Syrian government, particularly in light of the reduced military presence of Assad’s backers. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of Israeli strikes targeting Iranian assets has complicated the regional stability and posed additional challenges to the Syrian regime.
In conclusion, the unexpected resurgence of Syrian rebel forces resulting in the fall of Aleppo underscores the significant shifts in military alliances and geopolitical focuses in the region. Russia’s diminished role due to its engagement in Ukraine, coupled with the impact of Israeli military actions on Iranian proxies, has created an environment of instability for the Assad regime. As the conflict rekindles with renewed intensity, the implications for the broader Middle East remain profound, suggesting that an end to hostilities is not imminent.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
