The European Centre for Development Policy Management warns that climate change poses serious cross-border threats to MENA, affecting food security and geopolitical stability. Droughts and rising sea levels disproportionately impact countries like Egypt and Iraq. The region’s governance structures, heavily centralized and focused on oil wealth, hinder cooperative resilience efforts, despite significant youth populations and contrasting socioeconomic conditions. Morocco and Turkey demonstrate some success in renewable energy transitions, highlighting a path forward amid challenges.
As the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP 29) convenes, the European Centre for Development Policy Management highlights alarming findings regarding human-induced climate change’s impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Notably, the study emphasizes the cross-border challenges that threaten multiple countries simultaneously. The region is experiencing climate-related phenomena, such as escalating temperatures and droughts, at a rate twice that of the global average. Countries like Egypt and Iraq face significant risks due to rising sea levels, underscoring the urgency for intergovernmental collaboration, which remains elusive under current geopolitical tensions. Food security emerges as a critical issue, with MENA nations heavily reliant on imported grains. Global price fluctuations caused by climate change or conflicts—illustrated by the Russia-Ukraine War—heighten the vulnerability of these nations. Current governance structures, largely concentrated in the hands of oligarchs, exacerbate these issues by prioritizing economic gain over sustainable agricultural practices. For instance, Tunisia’s focus on olive exports over staple crops leads to water scarcity and food insecurity. The report identifies five primary categories of transnational threats arising from climate change: Biophysical risks, implying detrimental effects on shared ecosystems; Financial risks, where foreign investment may decline due to climatic disruptions; Trade risks, signifying potential disruptions in the supply of climate-sensitive goods; People-centered threats, associated with increased displacement; and Geopolitical conflicts exacerbated by resource scarcity. Despite substantial Western investment in renewable energy transitions, MENA countries receive insufficient support to bolster resilience against climate impacts. Geographically, the MENA region presents a diverse landscape, balancing between arid deserts and fertile valleys, home to nearly 500 million inhabitants. While wealth disparity is pronounced, countries like Morocco and Turkey lead in developing sustainable energy strategies. Morocco, in particular, excels in establishing wind and solar energy infrastructure, whereas Turkey remains more reliant on hydroelectric power, ultimately reflecting the broader challenges and opportunities within the region’s response to climate change.
The MENA region faces significant challenges from human-caused climate change, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and governance structures that hinder effective cooperation. Factors such as rising temperatures, increasing drought frequency, and sea level rise disproportionately affect countries dependent on climatic stability, as exemplified by the reliance on food imports and the associated vulnerabilities to global supply chain disruptions. The report reveals that despite potential pathways for transitioning to renewable energy, political and structural impediments are prevalent, complicating regional resilience efforts.
The findings presented by the European Centre for Development Policy Management underscore the pressing need for enhanced cooperation and comprehensive strategies to address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change in the MENA region. As vulnerabilities mount due to climatic fluctuations, urgent action is required to elevate the voices of marginalized communities and seek sustainable agricultural practices, while transitioning towards renewable energy sources. Failure to address these interconnected issues may lead to exacerbated conflicts and deeper insecurity among the populations reliant on these fragile ecosystems.
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