Joseph Aoun has been elected president of Lebanon, concluding over two years of a presidential vacuum. His election brings hope for political stability amid ongoing economic and financial crises. The country faces significant challenges, including international financial assistance needs and geopolitical tensions with Israel and Hezbollah. The international community’s support will be vital as Lebanon addresses its crises moving forward.
On January 9, Joseph Aoun, a renowned general within the Lebanese Armed Forces, was elected as the new president of Lebanon. His election was finalized after two rounds of voting, securing 99 votes—exceeding the necessary two-thirds majority—as achieved by the Lebanese parliament. This decisive event marked the conclusion of over two years of presidential vacancy following the expiration of former President Michel Aoun’s mandate in October 2022. The ongoing political deadlock had prevented the election of essential governmental figures, including a new prime minister.
The implications of Aoun’s presidency are profound, particularly within the context of Lebanon’s severe political and economic crisis. The country has grappled with a financial collapse since 2019, which has been exacerbated by external shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic and the repercussions of the Ukrainian conflict on global commodity prices. Reform efforts, critical for unlocking essential International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance, had stagnated during the political impasse. Nevertheless, a positive development following Aoun’s election includes indications of potential support from international allies such as Saudi Arabia.
Compounding these challenges is the precarious geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, primarily the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The recent outbreak of conflict has severely undermined Lebanon’s economy, resulting in extensive infrastructural damage estimated at approximately USD 8.5 billion by the World Bank. It is imperative for Lebanon to uphold the existing ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which thus far has been maintained despite allegations of violations.
While the election of President Aoun is a hopeful signal for Lebanon, the nation still confronts significant political, financial, economic, and institutional hurdles. Therefore, Credendo continues to classify the country’s short-term and medium-long term political risks at the highest level of 7 out of 7, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon signifies an end to a prolonged presidential vacuum that lasted over two years, a period marked by significant political instability and institutional paralysis. Following the expiration of former President Michel Aoun’s mandate, multiple voting sessions were rendered ineffective due to a fragmented parliament, delaying not only the presidential election but also critical appointments within the government. The resulting stasis has profound implications for Lebanon’s ability to address exacerbating economic hardships and undertake necessary reforms for international financial assistance.
In conclusion, Joseph Aoun’s election as president represents a pivotal moment for Lebanon, aiming to restore governance following a lengthy vacuum. However, significant challenges persist, including the need for economic reforms and the fragile geopolitical situation in the region. The international community’s response, particularly that of Saudi Arabia, will be crucial as Lebanon navigates its current crises. Therefore, while there is cautious optimism, the road ahead remains fraught with challenges that demand urgent attention.
Original Source: credendo.com
