Recent data reveals that while the number of tropical cyclones has remained steady at around 47 annually since 1980, their intensity has seen a 5 percent increase in average maximum wind speed over the past decade. The IPCC warns that climate change is likely to increase the occurrence of severe storms, particularly category four and five cyclones, with significant humanitarian implications.
An analysis of recent climate data indicates that while the incidence of tropical cyclones has remained consistent at approximately 47 occurrences per year since 1980, the intensity of these storms has markedly escalated. Research from international databases reveals that the average maximum wind speed of cyclones has risen from 182 kilometers per hour to 192 kilometers per hour over the past decade. Moreover, the occurrence of cyclones exceeding wind speeds of 250 kilometers per hour has increased from one in ten to 1.4 in ten, highlighting a significant surge in category five storms on the Saffir-Simpson scale, now escalating by 40 percent.
These observed changes are consistent with projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has cautioned that climate change is likely to intensify the severity of tropical cyclones, particularly those categorized as four and five. Robert Vautard, a climatologist and representative of the IPCC, articulated concerns regarding the humanitarian impacts of these trends driven by socio-economic factors. In essence, he stresses that climate change exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities in affected populations, thereby increasing the humanitarian toll of cyclones.
In the first eleven months of 2024 alone, there have been 42 recorded tropical cyclones, with Hurricane Milton being the most potent, impacting the U.S. with wind speeds up to 278 kilometers per hour. The West Pacific region has particularly suffered, experiencing 15 typhoons, with the Philippines particularly affected. Cyclone Chido, which struck the French territory of Mayotte, has resulted in significant casualties, further underscoring the growing humanitarian crises linked to these intense weather phenomena.
The topic of climate change and its implications on tropical cyclones has garnered significant attention in recent years. Reports from authoritative organizations, including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), illustrate the trend whereby the number of cyclones remains stable, yet their intensity escalates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, especially as they contribute to increased disaster risk and human suffering in vulnerable areas.
In conclusion, the data indicates a concerning trend where the frequency of tropical cyclones remains unchanged, yet their intensity is increasing significantly due to climate change. This intensification poses serious risks to communities, especially those already facing socio-economic hardships. The implications for disaster preparedness and humanitarian response are profound, necessitating urgent attention from both policymakers and the global community to mitigate impacts and enhance resilience against future storms.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
