Turkey’s influence in the Middle East is on the rise as the Assad regime in Syria weakens, marking a decline in Iran’s power. Erdoğan’s consistent support for Syrian rebels has positioned Turkey as a leading force in regional politics, complicating dynamics for Saudi Arabia and its allies. This transition reflects a broader strategic shift away from Iranian dominance toward an increasingly assertive Turkish presence across multiple regions.
The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East are undergoing a significant transformation, primarily driven by Turkey’s ascendance as a dominant regional force. The Assad regime’s downfall in Syria signals the diminishing power of Iran’s anticipated “Shia crescent” and heralds a new era characterized by Turkey’s growing influence, often referred to as the “full moon.” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s unwavering support for Syrian rebels has transformed Ankara into a pivotal player, ensuring its standing among the key stakeholders in the region, which spans from the Horn of Africa to Afghanistan.
Turkey’s influence was instrumental in the rebel successes, which unfolded with a surprisingly low level of violence compared to past conflicts in Syria. Unlike the sporadic support from various countries during early stages, Turkey’s consistent aid—including intelligence and political reinforcement—strengthened the rebels in northwestern Syria. Through strategic ceasefires established since 2019, Turkey provided a stable environment for the rebels to regroup and arm, ultimately contributing to the Assad regime’s inevitable decline as Iranian assistance dwindled amid regional pressures.
The repercussions of Turkey’s elevation will extend to neighboring Iraq. Historically engaged in Iraq’s northern regions alongside Kurdish factions, Turkey’s strengthened position following Syria’s Sunni-led governance transition will likely challenge Iranian-backed Shiite militias’ dominance, reflecting larger trends of diminishing Iranian sway. Moreover, Turkey’s ambitions reach farther into Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, demonstrating its intent to be a multifaceted regional influencer.
Following the recent Syrian events, Erdoğan successfully brokered a peace agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, showcasing Turkey’s diplomatic prowess among allied nations in Africa. Additionally, Turkey’s military involvement in Libya has further solidified its status as a critical energy player in the Mediterranean, while its alliances with the Taliban and Azerbaijan reflect a broadening geographical ambition, particularly in areas adjacent to Iran.
Turkey’s rise presents complex challenges for Saudi Arabia and its allies, as the nation navigates its identity as a Sunni power. Unlike Iran’s overt sectarian affiliations, Turkey offers a nuanced counterbalance through its support of local Sunni factions and endorsement of broader political Islam. Consequently, Riyadh must now contend with a more subtle and pervasive rivalry that undermines its narrative as the preeminent Sunni leader, echoing earlier challenges posed by Turkey’s support for an Islamist government in Egypt.
Iran’s long-held dominion, designated as the “Shia crescent”—which once allowed for significant influence across Arab capitals—has resulted in strategic vulnerabilities. The collapse of Assad’s regime effectively fragments Iran’s supply lines to Lebanon, affecting its proxies. Notably, Hezbollah is now under dual pressures from local crises and increased Israeli activity, consolidating Turkey’s position as Syria transitions from an Iranian ally to a Turkish collaborator.
This trajectory reflects Turkey’s assertive foreign policy rooted in economic and security needs, contrasting with Iran’s reliance on sectarianism and proxies. While Iran struggled to maintain its influence, Turkey’s strategy, blending military action with diplomacy and investment, offers a broader engagement approach. The regional implications are profound; Saudi Arabia and its partners find themselves facing a new geopolitical landscape fraught with challenges from Turkish growth.
In conclusion, the emergence of Turkey as a formidable Middle Eastern player marks a significant shift in the region’s power dynamics. The contestation between Iranian and Turkish influence is set to redefine alliances and strategies, with the focus shifting from Iranian ambitions to the extent of Turkey’s influence. The unfolding landscape raises critical questions for both regional actors and external policymakers regarding the future balance of power in the Middle East.
The article discusses the changing power dynamics in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Turkey’s increasing influence following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. It contextualizes Turkey’s rise against the backdrop of Iran’s declining power and emphasizes the strategic moves undertaken by Turkey under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It also highlights how the shifting allegiances reshuffle the existing geopolitical landscape, affecting neighboring countries and regional actors.
The shift of power in the Middle Eastern landscape signifies a pivotal moment that moves focus from Iran to Turkey as the emerging dominant force. Turkey’s strategic approach, which includes military, diplomatic, and economic initiatives, not only enhances its regional stature but also poses complex challenges to the established power structures dominated by Saudi Arabia and Iran. This evolution indicates an ongoing transformation that will redefine the future of geopolitical alignments in the region.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
