A recent UNCCD study found that over 75% of Earth’s land has become permanently drier over the past 30 years, with adverse effects projected to impact five billion people by 2100. Human-induced climate change is identified as the primary cause, exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions. Immediate, coordinated action is crucial to mitigate these trends and adapt to the changing environment.
A recent study conducted by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reveals that more than 75% of Earth’s land has experienced a shift toward permanent dryness over the last three decades. Specifically, from 1990 to 2020, 77.6% of land has encountered increasingly arid conditions, marking a 4.3 million square kilometers expansion of drylands, surpassing the area of India. Notably, over 40% of the Earth’s land mass, excluding Antarctica, is classified as drylands, an increase from 37.5% three decades ago.
Experts have characterized this ongoing climate change as an “existential crisis” that could impact five billion people by the century’s end if immediate action is not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Projections indicate that high-emission scenarios could result in an additional 3% of humid areas deteriorating into drylands, primarily affecting regions across North America, South America, southern Africa, southern Australia, and the Mediterranean.
The report titled “The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections” was presented during the 16th Conference of UNCCD parties in Saudi Arabia. Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD’s executive secretary, emphasized the significance of these findings, stating that the analysis clarifies the ongoing global drying trends, which represent an unyielding transformation rather than temporary droughts. He highlighted that once areas become drier, they may never revert to their prior climatic state.
Human-induced climate change, largely driven by greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors such as energy and transportation, is cited as the predominant factor for this alarming shift. The data reveal that nearly all of Europe has been affected, as well as regions in the western United States, Brazil, Asia, and central Africa, while less than a quarter of the land has seen wetter conditions.
Countries like South Sudan and Tanzania show the highest proportions of land converting to drylands, with China experiencing the most significant total area change. With global temperatures continuing to rise, projections suggest an impending future where five billion people may inhabit dry settings by 2100, leading to forced migrations due to uninhabitable conditions resulting from water scarcity and agricultural failures.
Barron Orr, the UNCCD’s Chief Scientist, remarked on the alarming findings, reiterating that the world is facing significant repercussions from unsustainable greenhouse gas emissions. He further stated, “As large tracts of the world’s land become more arid, the consequences of inaction grow increasingly dire and adaptation is no longer optional – it is imperative.” Meanwhile, Nichole Barger, chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, warned that without immediate, coordinated efforts, billions may confront hunger, displacement, and economic downturns in the near future, highlighting the urgent need to harness innovative solutions to address the global challenge of drying lands.
The issue of land aridity is becoming increasingly pressing due to the effects of climate change. The UNCCD study provides empirical evidence of this shift, offering a comprehensive analysis of how vast areas of the Earth have succumbed to permanent drying, affecting ecosystems, human livelihoods, and global stability. Understanding the factors driving this change, such as greenhouse gas emissions, is crucial for implementing effective policies and practices to mitigate its impacts and adapt to the evolving climate conditions.
The findings of the UNCCD report reveal a stark reality: climate change is causing irreversible transformations in land conditions across the globe, with significant social and economic implications for billions of people. Urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is essential to avert the consequences of expanding drylands and to secure a sustainable future. Collaborative global efforts are necessary not only to combat aridity but also to foster resilience in communities facing these challenges.
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