Early voting data shows that likely Republicans are matching likely Democrats in in-person votes, a record high for Republicans compared to previous years, while Democrats retain a significant lead in mail-in ballots. This analysis was conducted 16 days prior to the November election in Virginia.
As the November election approaches, early in-person voting reveals a significant trend among likely Republican and Democratic voters. Currently, the number of early in-person votes cast by likely Republicans aligns closely with the figures reported for likely Democrats, marking a notable increase for Republicans relative to previous election cycles from 2021 to 2023. Conversely, likely Democratic voters continue to maintain a considerable lead in mail-in ballots, with their ratio exceeding two-to-one compared to Republicans, exhibiting no substantial variance from prior years. For a comprehensive overview, including early voting statistics segmented by locality, one may refer to the VPAP’s Early Voting Dashboard.
This report centers on the early voting patterns observed in Virginia, particularly focusing on the partisanship of voters as the election date nears. The analysis draws on data compiled 16 days before the election, specifically on October 20th, 2024. Virginia’s electoral framework does not mandate voter registration by political affiliation. Consequently, to ascertain the likely party affiliation of early voters, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) matched voter IDs with information from L2 Political, utilizing methodologies that assess previous participation in primary elections alongside demographic indicators. Notably, data from the 2020 election has been excluded due to inconsistencies and limitations in historical data collection that resulted in a statistically significant “Unknown” category.
In summary, the early voting landscape in Virginia as of October 20th, 2024, reveals a competitive scenario between likely Republican and Democratic voters regarding in-person ballots, while Democrats sustain a strong advantage in mail-in voting. This trend underscores the evolving electoral engagement among different party affiliations as the election draws closer.
Original Source: www.vpap.org
