An attribution study published in **Nature Climate Change** indicates that climate change has led to an over 15 percent increase in global burnt area from 2003 to 2019. The study highlights significant rises in fire-prone regions, particularly central Australia and South America, stressing the growing influence of climate change on wildfire dynamics. While human actions have mitigated some impacts, the study predicts a reversal in this trend moving forward, emphasizing the need for enhanced climate action and adaptation strategies.
A recent attribution study has revealed that the global area affected by wildfires due to climate change has likely increased by over 15 percent from 2003 to 2019. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that the annual contribution of climate change to burned areas has risen by 0.22 percent globally. It identified central Australia as the region with the most significant rise in burnt area. Chantelle Burton, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre and a co-author of the study, stated, “Our study demonstrates that when fires do occur, the influence of climate change with drier and warmer weather conditions is increasingly significant.” While previous research had noted the impacts of climate change on wildfires, the extent of its contribution to global fire regimes had not been quantified until now. Seppe Lampe, a PhD researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and another co-author, emphasized, “We wanted to quantify the amount of burnt area we could attribute to climate change. It is no secret that climate change is affecting wildfires. However, how much climate change is affecting it, we don’t know. This is what we wanted to answer.” The study found that overall, global climatic upheaval has caused an increase of 15.8 percent in the burnt area, particularly notable in Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia. In northern Australia, the median burnt area surged by 22 percent, while southeastern South America experienced a 30 percent increase. The impacts of climate change were also highlighted in Africa, where increases were recorded at 20.3 percent in central Africa, 2.7 percent in western Africa, and 12.4 percent in northeastern Africa. Although human activities such as land-use changes have led to a 19 percent decrease in global burnt areas, the study concludes that overall, the net change is a slight reduction of 5 percent in global burnt area. However, Lampe reinforces that the effect of climate change, while currently small, is on the rise, stating, “For now, human activity has a bigger effect on reducing burnt area than climate change is increasing it. We do find that the effect of climate change is increasing (0.2 percent per year), which implies that in the coming decades, this balance will reverse.” Despite the modest net impact globally, the researchers indicated that local and regional shifts reflect a rapid increase of climate change influences on wildfires, underscoring the need for substantial actions to mitigate climate change and adapt to its consequences.
The ongoing effects of climate change have prompted various studies exploring their impact on wildfires globally. This recent attribution study distinguishes itself by quantifying the contribution of climate change to the increased fire frequency and burnt areas over a significant period, contrasting with prior research that primarily focused on land-use changes. By analyzing the past decade’s wildfire data, the study illustrates the evolving dynamics between climate change and regional fire activity, signaling an urgent need for effective climate action and adaptation strategies in fire-prone areas.
In conclusion, the study provides compelling evidence that climate change has significantly exacerbated the global burnt area due to wildfires by over 15 percent from 2003 to 2019, particularly affecting regions like central Australia and parts of South America. While human activities have currently subdued this increase, the continuing trends suggest that climate change’s impact on wildfires will intensify in the future. It reflects the urgent necessity for robust climate mitigation efforts to manage the escalating risk of wildfires and their ecological impacts.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
