Syria’s Assad regime is treading cautiously amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, choosing to avoid direct involvement in conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. This restraint stems from the regime’s weakened state, the threat of retaliation from Israel, and the complexities of its alliances with Hamas and Hezbollah. Analysts highlight that Assad’s passive posture reflects a deep concern for regime survival over regional influence, particularly given the internal challenges facing Syria today.
In recent months, Syrian President Bashar Assad has exercised caution in the face of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, deliberately avoiding direct involvement in conflicts unfolding in Gaza and Lebanon. This strategic restraint arises not only from the awareness of potential Israeli retaliation, but also from the significant internal struggles that have beset Syria for over a decade. Crippled by civil unrest, economic instability, and international isolation, Assad’s regime is keenly aware that taking an aggressive stance could lead to disastrous consequences for his hold on power. Historically, Syria has served as a critical ally for Iran, acting as a conduit for Iranian military support to groups like Hezbollah. However, as Israeli strikes targeting Iranian interests in Syria have intensified, questions regarding the Assad regime’s reliability within the Axis of Resistance have surfaced. Analysts note that Assad’s inability, or unwillingness, to assist traditional allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah effectively reveals the weakened state of his regime. The Syrian Arab Army, once a formidable force, has become significantly impaired due to a lack of resources and ongoing internal conflicts, rendering it unable to mount a substantial defense against Israeli military actions. Experts highlight that Assad’s cautious approach stems from a keen awareness of his precarious position; any retaliation against Israeli strikes could prompt a catastrophic response from Israel that the current regime lacks the capacity to withstand. The Syrian government still maintains a degree of passive support for Hezbollah, such as allowing the group to conduct training and logistical operations within its borders. Yet, this relationship is fraught with tension, stemming from the diminished influence Assad holds over regional dynamics, particularly following the decline in Syrian military control over Lebanon. Furthermore, the relationship between Assad and Hamas has markedly deteriorated since the onset of the Syrian Civil War, further complicating potential collaboration against common adversaries. Ultimately, while Syria’s role as a regional power has transitioned from active participation to that of a passive supporter, the Assad regime’s primary focus remains on self-preservation amid deteriorating economic conditions and social instability. The challenges present—economic crises, refugee influxes, and external pressures—pose significant risks for the regime as it attempts to balance its geopolitical relationships with its survival.
The Syrian regime, under Bashar Assad, has been deeply entrenched in a conflict characterized by decades-long alliances and regional dynamics that have shifted significantly since the onset of the civil war in 2011. With heavy financial and military support from Iran and Israel’s unyielding military campaign against perceived threats within Syria’s borders, the Assad regime is caught between maintaining its partnerships with Iran and Hezbollah and avoiding a direct confrontation that could undermine its very existence. The administration faces pressures from the internal struggle against various armed groups, international scrutiny, and a populace facing dire economic conditions.
In conclusion, the Assad regime’s current policy of restraint in the face of escalating Israel-Iran tensions reflects its recognition of the fragile state of its own power and the precariousness of its alliances. Assad’s survival hinges upon navigating these complex regional dynamics without provoking direct conflict while simultaneously managing the inward pressures of a weakened military and a strained economy. The interplay between regional conflicts and the Assad regime’s strategies will likely continue to shape Syria’s role on the geopolitical stage.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
