Egypt has allied with Eritrea and Somalia to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia as tensions over regional security escalate. The alliance was formalized during a meeting in Eritrea, where leaders discussed enhancing Somali security capabilities and addressed their mutual concerns regarding Ethiopian regional actions. This development underscores complex socio-political dynamics, including historical grievances and ongoing conflicts such as Sudan’s civil war and terrorism in Somalia, raising fears of possible renewed hostilities and instability in the Horn of Africa.
In recent developments, a coalition opposing Ethiopia is emerging in the Horn of Africa, comprising Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. This alliance poses a significant concern for regional stability as these nations have expressed their intention to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The formation of this “axis” was solidified during a historic meeting in Asmara, Eritrea, where President Isaias Afwerki welcomed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, culminating in a signed security partnership. A joint statement underscored their commitment to strengthening Somali institutions to enhance security against both domestic and external threats, particularly terrorism. This alliance is not without complications; Egypt has previously accused Ethiopia of endangering its water security through the construction of a dam on the Nile, leading to ongoing tensions. Moreover, Egypt’s recent military support to Somalia and its request to the African Union to deploy troops underscore a strategic shift aimed at counterbalancing Ethiopian influence in the region. This shift was further exemplified by Ethiopia’s agreement to lease a coastal area from Somaliland in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence, a move interpreted as an effort to restore Ethiopia’s historical access to the sea. With Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia also involved in the Sudan conflict, supporting opposing factions, the regional landscape has become increasingly fraught. There is concern that the alliance might escalate existing tensions and reignite historical grievances, particularly considering Eritrea’s hostility towards the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a sentiment not reciprocated by Abiy’s Ethiopian government. Critics fear that Somalia’s collaboration with Egypt could aggravate internal clan divisions, with potential implications for the ongoing battle against al-Shabab. As these dynamics unfold, the prospect of escalating conflicts in the region remains a dire concern, threatening to destabilize what is already a fragile security landscape.
This article highlights the ramifications of a new military and political coalition between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia specifically directed against Ethiopia. It reflects on historical grievances and power struggles in the Horn of Africa, focusing on Egypt’s long-standing dispute with Ethiopia over Nile waters, Somalia’s ongoing issues with al-Shabab, and Eritrea’s unresolved aftermath from its conflict with Ethiopia. The alliance’s formation signals a shift in the geopolitical balance in the region and raises alarms over potential destabilizing effects on local and regional security.
In conclusion, the emerging alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia represents a critical juncture in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, presenting serious implications for regional stability. The coalition, driven by mutual perceptions of threat from Ethiopia, risks exacerbating existing conflicts and entrenching historical rivalries. As military alliances evolve in this context, the potential for renewed hostilities could undermine efforts for peace and security within the region, demanding close attention from international observers and local stakeholders alike.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
