Egypt has entered into a strategic alliance with Eritrea and Somalia to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia, strengthening their security ties amidst existing regional tensions related to military interventions and historical territorial disputes. This alliance has raised concerns about the potential for renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa as all parties maneuver for influence.
In a significant geopolitical shift, Egypt has forged an alliance with Eritrea and Somalia, forming a formidable bloc aiming to counter perceived threats from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This new alliance gained momentum during a recent summit in Asmara, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to establish a security partnership designed to bolster Somalia’s military capabilities against internal and external threats, including the militant group al-Shabab. The joint statement from the summit emphasized enhancing Somali state institutions and empowering the Somali National Federal Army. Notably, Egypt has also been dispatching arms to Somalia, with a proposal to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers in the region with Egyptian troops—a move that may exacerbate existing tensions. Moreover, the alliance appears to be a direct response to a recent deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, wherein Ethiopia sought to regain historical access to the Red Sea, a move opposed by Somalia. The backdrop of this alliance includes ongoing conflicts in Sudan, where Egypt and Eritrea are aligned with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, potentially sharpening regional divisions further. While the motives of this newly formed axis may reflect security pragmatism, critics express concerns that this could ignite higher levels of conflict, especially considering the longstanding animosities between these nations. Ethiopia’s collaboration with the Emirates adds another layer of complexity, potentially inflaming existing tensions in the region. The dangerous interplay of these alliances, marked by historical grievances and competing interests, poses a serious challenge to stability in the Horn of Africa.
The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is shifting, largely influenced by long-standing grievances and territorial disputes among neighboring countries. The formation of an alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia signifies an emerging counterweight to Ethiopia, particularly amid tensions related to Ethiopia’s actions in the region and its attempts to expand its maritime presence in the face of oppositional stances from Somalia and Eritrea. This alliance emerges against the backdrop of previous military engagements involving Ethiopia in Somalia and has the potential to reignite historical conflicts, reflecting deep-rooted political complexities and regional power struggles.
The recent summit in Asmara between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia informs a significant power dynamic shift in East Africa that seeks to unify these nations against Ethiopia’s ambitions. While the alliance may offer temporary strategic advantages, it risks rekindling hostilities that could lead to broader conflicts within the Horn of Africa. The historical narratives of these nations, compounded by a web of military engagements and alliances, warrant close observation as the situation develops, highlighting the fragile peace in the region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
