Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center have noted a rising likelihood of a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic developing into a tropical depression that could affect the Caribbean by the end of the week. The system is currently disorganized but may encounter more conducive conditions as it moves westward. There is uncertainty regarding its exact path, with differing forecasts for its trajectory. Another disturbance near Central America is monitored for possible development, though chances are lower.
Meteorologists have reported an increasing likelihood of a new storm system approaching the Caribbean region by the end of the week. According to the National Hurricane Center, the tropical disturbance currently located in the Atlantic Ocean has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next week, with a 30% chance of intensification within the next 48 hours. This marks an increase in the probability from previous assessments. As of Tuesday morning, the disturbance is characterized as a disorganized aggregation of thunderstorms featuring a distinct rotational feature. For the system to officially evolve into a tropical depression and potentially become a tropical storm or hurricane, it must enhance its organization and rainfall intensity. Presently, this is complicated by the presence of dry air in its current location. The system is projected to continue its westward trajectory, where it may encounter more favorable, moist atmospheric conditions that could facilitate its development. It is anticipated to approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around Thursday or Friday. Global weather models, however, present varied forecasts, with some projecting a path through Cuba while others suggest a turn towards Florida or the Bahamas. Experts caution that at this initial stage of development, predictive models are not optimally reliable. Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel noted, “Many questions remain on both intensity and track.” The next designated name for naming storms in this instance is Nadine. In addition to this disturbance, the hurricane center is also monitoring a separate area of concern off the coast of Central America, which has a significantly lower chance of formation—approximately 30% over the next week and no immediate chance within the next two days. Although there exists a possibility of this system developing into a tropical depression if it remains over water, the majority of computer models indicate it will ultimately drift back toward the Central American coast. Regardless of its development potential, heavy localized rainfall is anticipated across parts of Central America later this week.
The article discusses the potential development of a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean and its possible impact on the Caribbean region. The National Hurricane Center’s assessment includes forecasts based on the system’s movement, moisture levels in its environment, and various computer models that predict its trajectory. Additionally, the article highlights the differing forecasts between the pathways the hurricane may take, emphasizing the uncertainty early in the storm’s formation process. The mention of another disturbance off Central America adds context to the broader weather patterns being monitored in the region.
In conclusion, forecasters are closely monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that shows an increasing chance of developing into a tropical depression as it approaches the Caribbean. While predictions regarding its path remain uncertain, areas such as the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should prepare for potential impacts later this week. Additionally, another system off Central America is being tracked, albeit with a significantly lower probability of development. Continued updates from the National Hurricane Center will be essential in the days to come as the situation evolves.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
