Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt held a trilateral summit in Asmara on October 10, 2023, focusing on confronting regional interference and enhancing Somalia’s capabilities against terrorism. The meeting comes amid escalating tensions with Ethiopia, particularly after Ethiopia’s controversial actions regarding Somaliland. Egypt has intensified its support for Somalia against Ethiopia, raising concerns about the potential for conflict despite ongoing internal challenges faced by the involved nations.
On October 10, 2023, Eritrea’s long-serving leader, Isaias Afwerki, convened a trilateral summit in Asmara with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. This meeting marks a pivotal moment as the leaders addressed the need to counter what they described as interference in their internal affairs. Their discussions led to a commitment to strengthen cooperation, with a particular focus on enhancing the capabilities of Somali state institutions to combat terrorism and safeguard national borders. This gathering follows significant tensions involving Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt, particularly since Ethiopia’s controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which Somalia considers part of its territory. The agreement has escalated diplomatic strains, prompting Somalia to threaten the expulsion of Ethiopian troops unless their understanding is retracted. Egypt has seized this opportunity to intensify pressure on Ethiopia, exacerbated by longstanding disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo perceives as a threat to its water resources. Egypt’s military cooperation with Somalia has included supplying weapons and proposing the deployment of troops to replace Ethiopian forces currently engaged in counter-terrorism operations against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Eritrea, which had previously aligned with Ethiopia during the Tigray civil war, has also seen its relationship with Ethiopia sour, particularly in the aftermath of the peace deal between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Afwerki is concerned about potential Ethiopian ambitions regarding Eritrea’s strategic ports, and he seeks to establish a network of regional alliances to fortify Eritrea’s security position. Despite the rising tensions and aggressive posturing, analysts believe that a direct military confrontation remains improbable at present due to the internal challenges faced by both Somalia and Egypt, as well as Eritrea’s ongoing recovery from conflict. The geopolitics in the region indicate a return to a ‘no war, no peace’ scenario, with the stability that followed the 2018 rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia dissipating amidst growing conflicts.
The recent trilateral meeting between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt is situated within a broader context of escalating tensions involving Ethiopia. This summit arises from a series of conflicts rooted in Ethiopia’s engagement with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, which has provoked strong responses from Somalia, as well as concerns from Egypt regarding Ethiopia’s water policies. The dynamics of regional politics involve ongoing power plays, historical grievances, and current geopolitical strategies, particularly in light of military ties and operations involving Somalia and Ethiopia.
In summary, the trilateral meeting in Asmara reflects a significant alignment among Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt in response to perceived Ethiopian aggression and interference. While military confrontation appears unlikely in the immediate future, the evolving alliances and tensions in the region highlight the complexities of maintaining peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: www.theafricareport.com
