This report identifies that floods have triggered over 185 million internal displacements globally since 2008, with Africa facing 29 million of them. It focuses on Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, introducing a new risk model designed to estimate future displacements. Utilizing innovative vulnerability assessments and probabilistic methods, the study indicates that average annual displacement could increase by two to four times current figures, with even greater risks under pessimistic scenarios. The findings aim to inform disaster risk reduction policies to mitigate the impacts of displacement.
The current report emphasizes the alarming consequence of floods leading to over 185 million internal displacements globally since 2008, with Africa accounting for approximately 29 million of those displacements between 2008 and 2022. This places Africa as the second most affected region by flood-induced displacements. The study focuses specifically on the Horn of Africa, with particular attention to the countries of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. A novel flood displacement risk model has been developed under Work Package 3 of the HABITABLE project. This model is designed to produce calibrated estimations of future displacements, thereby assisting in the creation of effective policies to address this pressing issue. The methodology applied in this study includes a unique vulnerability assessment that takes into account factors frequently disregarded in conventional risk models, such as direct effects on housing and livelihoods, as well as the indirect effects on vital facilities and services. Utilizing a probabilistic approach, the methodology incorporates climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling to ascertain the impacts that precipitate displacement events. The findings of this study articulate displacement risk through metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) and the probable maximum displacement. The assessments conducted reveal a daunting potential increase in AAD ranging from two to four times in comparison to present conditions, with even greater risks under pessimistic future climate scenarios, particularly highlighting a potential ninefold increase for Sudan. These outputs are pivotal for informing both national and subnational disaster risk reduction strategies, as they aid in the identification of regions that are vulnerable to significant displacements. Hence, policymakers are prompted to leverage this critical information to execute risk-informed initiatives aimed at preventing and alleviating the consequences of displacement. Subsequently, the report culminates in recommendations for comprehensive policies and strategies targeted at addressing the risks associated with flood-induced displacement and safeguarding the populations affected by such humanitarian crises.
The report addresses the significant issue of internal displacement caused by floods in the Horn of Africa, particularly in the nations of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. It highlights the scope of the crisis, tracking displacements since 2008 and establishing Africa’s ranking as a severely impacted region. Through the introduction of a new flood displacement risk model, the study aims to improve understanding and responses to displacement events by integrating comprehensive vulnerability assessments and advanced modeling techniques, thus distilling critical data needed by policymakers.
In conclusion, this report presents a stark overview of the risks posed by flood-induced displacements in the Horn of Africa. By establishing a new risk model that utilizes a detailed assessment of vulnerabilities, the study provides invaluable insights that can guide policymakers in framing effective disaster risk reduction strategies. With findings suggesting substantial increases in displacement risks under future climate scenarios, the urgency for comprehensive policies addressing these challenges is emphasized, ultimately aiming to protect affected populations from the impacts of displacement.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
