Brazil is re-evaluating its long-standing support for Venezuela, historically aligned with the Bolivarian regime under Lula. Recent political shifts following disputed elections and intensifying protests in Venezuela, alongside evolving public opinion, predominantly against Maduro within Brazil, signal a strategic recalibration. Increasing scrutiny of Brazil’s ties to authoritarianism, compounded by economic considerations and the emergence of the Venezuelan diaspora’s influence, indicates a potential pivot towards supporting democratic initiatives in Venezuela over outdated ideological loyalties.
Following decades of steadfast support for its neighbor, Brazil appears to be recalibrating its foreign policy regarding Venezuela. Traditionally, under the leadership of Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, Brazil has championed the Bolivarian regime, which began with former President Hugo Chávez and continued under Nicolás Maduro. This alignment included condemnation of the U.S. stance during the 2002 coup attempt against Chávez and significant cooperation in energy, trade, and environmental initiatives, especially concerning the Amazon rainforest. However, recent political developments and shifting public sentiment have prompted a notable change in Brazil’s approach. In the wake of Venezuela’s controversial elections, which Maduro claimed to have won amidst international condemnation of the process, President Lula has voiced criticisms of Maduro’s government, labeling it a “very unpleasant regime” exhibiting “authoritarian slant.” Several factors have fueled this transition. Firstly, anti-Maduro protests in Venezuela have intensified, drawing in the working-class demographic that historically supported the regime. These protests, fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with the dire economic circumstances under Maduro—characterized by significant GDP contraction and hyperinflation—have increased pressure on Brazil to reassess its support for a regime perceived as increasingly illegitimate. Additionally, the influence of the Venezuelan diaspora, now numbering over 8 million, has made its mark across Latin America, including Brazil. Their narratives of hardship resonate with Brazilian citizens, complicating the historically sympathetic perceptions of the Bolivarian cause. Public opinion within Brazil has also shifted, particularly among traditional leftist supporters. Recent polling indicates a majority of self-identifying leftists believe that electoral fraud occurred in the recent Venezuelan elections. Emerging realizations regarding Maduro’s failure to deliver on promises of social justice have alienated once-loyal allies in Brazil’s leftist movements. Furthermore, Brazil’s own democratic struggles necessitate a cautious approach to foreign policy, as Lula aims to maintain a broad pro-democracy coalition domestically. Supporting a regime viewed as undemocratic could alienate centrist voters and jeopardize Lula’s achievements in securing Brazil’s democracy. Internationally, Maduro’s increasing isolation, exacerbated by shifting geopolitical dynamics, makes continued backing less appealing for Brazil. Lula’s administration has been under scrutiny for its connections to authoritarian regimes, and fostering ties with an increasingly isolated Maduro could further implicate Brazil in reputational risks. In addition to these pressures, economic factors are critical; as Venezuela’s economic collapse deepens, the once-attractive opportunities for Brazilian businesses diminish. The legacy of the Operation Car Wash scandal has rendered relations riskier, prompting Brazilian interests in seeking stability and growth elsewhere in the region. While Lula and his advisors strive for a nuanced approach, they are encouraged by the shifting tide and should take proactive steps in supporting democratic change in Venezuela instead of clinging to outdated allegiances. Despite signs of this shift, tangible actions have yet to materialize, leaving Brazil at risk of losing influence in critical negotiations on this issue. Brazil must leverage its regional leadership and initiate dialogues to foster democracy in Venezuela as a strategic move aligned with its long-term national interests.
The longstanding alliance between Brazil and Venezuela, particularly under the ideologically aligned governments of the Workers’ Party, has faced a turning point. Brazil, historically supportive of Venezuela’s left-wing initiatives, now grapples with changing dynamics both domestically and regionally. As Peru’s authoritarian government becomes increasingly isolated following contentious elections and diminishing ideological support within Brazil’s left circles, President Lula’s recent critical statements about Maduro reflect a significant shift influenced by rising public dissent, economic realities, and regional geopolitical changes.
Brazil’s evolving stance on Venezuela signals a significant departure from its historical support for the Bolivarian regime. Influenced by domestic public opinion, intensified protests against Maduro, and a waning economic partnership, Brazil is now positioned to potentially lead efforts toward fostering democratic change in Venezuela. This recalibration acknowledges the complexities of navigating an increasingly authoritarian neighbor amid pressing regional expectations, thereby aligning Brazil’s foreign policy with contemporary democratic values.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
