The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa for June to September 2024, with concerns for flooding in South Sudan and Sudan. This period is vital for agriculture and water resource management and echoes past patterns witnessed in 1998 and 2010. Collaborations from climate forums enhance the applicability of this forecast for regional stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors.
The Greater Horn of Africa is set to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). This prediction encompasses a broad area, including Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. The period from June to September is critical, as it typically accounts for over 90% of annual rainfall in the northern regions and about 40% in the southern areas. The anticipated wetter conditions bear resemblance to rainfall patterns observed during 1998 and 2010, raising concerns about possible flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, noted Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC. Recent natural disasters have impacted several countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and certain parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda, as they transition into their dry season from June to September. The importance of seasonal climate outlooks cannot be overstated, as they significantly influence decision-making across various sectors, such as agriculture, health, and water resource management. These forecasts are integral to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to enhance preparedness for climate-related disasters. The forecast, announced during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, represents collaboration among climate scientists, governmental bodies, non-governmental organizations, and sectors sensitive to climate change. Over the past two decades, the WMO has played a pivotal role in supporting regional climate forums, which provide vital climate information and forecasts to safeguard lives and livelihoods, while bolstering sectors like agriculture, food security, water management, health, and disaster risk reduction. ICPAC employs an objective seasonal forecast methodology, utilizing forecasts initialized by nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and applying three calibration techniques to produce precise climate forecasts for the region. Regional weather patterns suggest an early to normal onset of rainfall in several areas, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, though some regions, such as Djibouti and parts of Sudan and South Sudan, may experience delayed rainfall onset. The forecast also indicates the probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The Greater Horn of Africa faces significant challenges related to climate variability and its implications for agriculture, health, water resources, and disaster risk management. This region is characterized by distinct rainy seasons, which are crucial for sustaining livelihoods and food security. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) functions as an authoritative source of climate forecasts, guiding stakeholders in both governmental and non-governmental entities, especially in climate-sensitive sectors. The reliance on precise climate predictions is accentuated during crucial periods, such as the forthcoming rainy season from June to September, which is integral to farming and water supply.
In conclusion, the forecast by ICPAC for above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 underscores the necessity for preparedness among the countries in the region, particularly concerning potential flooding in vulnerable areas like South Sudan and Sudan. The seasonal climate outlook serves as a critical tool for guiding various sectors impacted by climate, enhancing overall resilience against climate-induced risks, and facilitating informed decision-making. It is crucial for regional stakeholders to implement strategies based on these forecasts to mitigate the adverse effects of forthcoming weather patterns while ensuring the safety and security of the populations they serve.
Original Source: wmo.int
